High alert

I have been wanting to post for a while now, but have been foiled repeatedly by the Great Firewall of China... The first proxy I was using allowed me to get to my blog, but not to post, but finally, I have found one that will actually let me write.

I still find myself hampered, however, because the issues that are most on my mind now are sensitive, so please forgive some self-censoring.

In short, the Kachin Independence Army and the Burma Army are gearing up for war.

This is a continuation of the drama that has been playing out since last October, when I was last here on the border. I posted at that time, about the tension leading up to the deadline given to the KIA by the BA, which was basically to submit themselves to the authority of the SPDC and BA, giving up their semi-autonomous status, or, well, or else.

Well, the first deadline passed, and nothing happened, then another was set. Then another. Now, a new deadline is approaching on April 28.

This time around, though, it seems a bit more tense. Both sides have amassed troops and arms along a front line. On April 5th, a BA convoy rolled in, until there were 126 trucks, carrying troops, guns, and 17 missiles, sitting in Myitkyina, 3 hours from Laiza. The closest part of the front line is just one hour by motorbike from the training center where we are staying. In the past couple of months farmers from nearby areas have started turning up at Laiza hospital with landmine injuries.

While we are advised that BA is too concerned about accidentally bombing China to send any mortars or missiles close to the border, it still feels a little uncomfortable to be so near a potential battle. The idea that a missile could crash through the roof of the training center is extremely difficult to wrap my head around (though the chance is quite remote, that even a small chance exists is rather mind blowing).

We are getting constant updates from a variety of sources, and are assured that we will have notice if fighting will begin, ample enough to get away from the border. We still have to wonder though, if just being here now poses an unjustifiably high risk? Is _any_ risk too much to continue a simple maternal and child health training? Though the threat seems higher now, it has been looming for months, and all cannot come to a standstill while the Kachin people wait to see what will happen. I feel unable to make this call. Both because I don't feel I have enough information to fully gauge the complete risk (it seems low, but do I have all of the info?) and because I am now too invested in my training, my trainees, and my other friends and colleagues who live in Kachin State.

It is possible China will step in, and use its trade relationship with Burma to put pressure on them not to attack (there is an oil pipeline supplying China that runs through the Kachin area and would be at risk of destruction if there is fighting). It is also possible that both sides will realize that neither has much to gain but much to loose through fighting.

In fact, this afternoon we got more information that makes it seem less dire. The alert level has not yet been reduced, however. What is probably more likely than conflict is that the BA will just shut down the area: put up roadblocks and checkpoint, effectively shutting down local operations (including health projects, by preventing supplies or medics from traveling).

Today in training we covered neonatal resuscitation; that the midwives are committed to learning how to save tiny brand new lives, even while faced with imminent conflict, encourages hope. Last night we cooked for them (spaghetti with marinara and garlic bread!), and the sharing of food and abundant laughter was also a moment of light.

For now, we stay, though we take it one day, (or even one half day) at a time. Our bags are packed (continually). Only five days of training remain. I'm sure we'll once again depart Laiza without a problem, but I once again feel guilt over how easily I can drive away, and leave it all behind me. My friends, colleagues, and the midwives I'm training have no such luxury.