Tuesday, November 9, 2010

10,000+

Numbers are ranging wildly, with some saying as many as 50,000 refugees are now in Mae Sot (though 10,000 continues to be the most frequently reported number, at least regarding the number staying at the football field by the airport). I don't know what the actual population of Myawaddy is (and a quick search online didn't yield any revelation), but it seems that a rapidly increasing proportion of it is on this side of the river.

It's strangely business as usual in downtown Mae Sot, which on the one hand leaves me aghast that our lives are so unaffected by the misfortunes of our neighbors, but on the other, relieved that the presence of CBOs, INGOs, UNHCR, and the Thai Authority mean that, for the moment, the needs of the refugees will be met.

This morning the Myawaddy market was hit with a mortar, killing three: the first civilian deaths.

This is the third influx of refugees that I have been involved in the response to, and its a strange thing. In those first hours/days post flight, there's an urgency to act, but its impossible to know what response is best - whether these visitors will stay but for a short while, or are seeking a new home, whether the worst has passed, or you should be preparing for the real influx. There are, as I have both experienced and studied, phases in disaster response: immediate aid, transition, and recovery. But this assumes the cause has passed, which is less often the case in complex emergencies (international euphemism for conflict or bad gov't). How long will the fighting last? Will they be able to return, or will an occupying force, or mined roads, prevent them from doing so? Will there be retribution for supporters of one side or another? These refugees are now at the airport. Thats fine for a few days, but each day longer makes the move to a different site harder.

And as the fighting continues, with no sign of abatement, one begins to wonder, is this the beginning of a new chapter for Mae Sot? Will such a large influx encourage Thailand to take a harder stance against the Burmese gov't? Or perhaps the death yesterday of a Thai soldier is more motivating? Or perhaps this entire situation evaporate tomorrow, drifting back across the river, until the next crisis.
refugees preparing to cross the River Moei from Myawaddy into Mae Sot

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