free and fair

Yesterday Myanmar held its first election in 20 years. The last election resulted in the ruling junta refusing to step down, and arresting Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the NLD, which won the election. The expectations for yesterday were mixed, but definitely trending towards the little-to-no-hope end of the spectrum, with (reasonably founded) expectations of fraud, intimidation, and violence. Numerous villages in the border areas were listed as ineligible to vote, and several of the ethnic minority political parties that tried to register in advance of the poll were denied. Over 100 parliament seats, about 1/3, are reserved for military nominees, rather than open to election. Numerous military officials stepped down from the army a couple ago to form a civilian political party which is expected to fill an additional sizable portion of seats.

Still, there was a small resolute flicker in the hearts of the optimistic minority that the election represented the opening of a previously tightly locked door. And though it be but a sliver ajar, the election of opposition candidates would serve as the tip of a mighty wedge, on which persistent hammering would eventually throw that door wide.

As with many things, a chief factor underlying the difference in perspectives is the location of the observer. In this case, the closer one's proximilty to Burma's border, the less likely one is to view the election as anything other than a staged attempt at capturing legitimacy for an unwavering military dictatorship. The optimism clung to by some in Rangoon seems to be issuing forth from some other reality. The border reality is that as the elections have drawn nearer, the violence has escalated. For the past year there have been steady attacks on villages, including schools (with students inside) and clinics. Ceasefire groups have been threatened and cajoled to the point that some are splintering, and all are on the verge of returning to arms. I want so much to hold with those who see this day as an opportunity, but that involves trust, and that is something hard given to those who have recently been maligning and attacking, the promises of a better future issuing from lips so recently spewing threats.

The polls have closed now, and the counting is underway. President Obama issued a statement yesterday evening saying the election was "neither free nor fair, and failed to meet any of the internationally accepted standards associated with legitimate elections. The elections were based on a fundamentally flawed process and demonstrated the regime’s continued preference for repression and restriction over inclusion and transparency."

Closer to home, the town on the other end of the 'Friendship Bridge' which spans from my town across the river to Burma was seized yesterday by a splinter group of the DKBA. The DKBA majority is a ceasefire group aligned with the SPDC (gov't of Burma), but even it has started recently to show fissures widening. The commanding officers said SPDC troops were keeping Myawaddy residents from voting, so they asked the DKBA to take the town so they could vote. This morning we woke to reports of gun and mortar fire across the river, and at least 4 mortar shells and RPGs have already landed on the Thai side of the river (near the riverbank, whereas Mae Sot is actually a few kilometers from the river). A truck was hit and a dog killed, but otherwise there have been on Thai side injuries.

It is hard to know how these recent events will resolve. Whether the fighting calms, or whether it triggers engagement with the newly minted five force alliance of the 'federal army'. Whether the election leads to a change in government, or governance, however small, or just business as usual. Whether our partners will be able to continue implementing health programs in this region in dire need of access, or whether it will dissolve into widespread conflict. We have spent the last year waiting for the elections. They came, and went. Now we wait to see the result.